KONTAN.CO.ID - Jakarta. Amidst the rumor that GOTO may have a short cash runway, BRI Danareksa just released a report that stated the company’s cash balance may be enough to take the company into EBITDA positive even with assumption of no extra fundraising. 

“We continue to believe that contribution margin positive is doable from 3Q23 while EBITDA should be positive in 2025 even in the absence of any new fundraising,” wrote Niko Margaronis, Research Analyst from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas.

BRI Danareksa Sekuritas projects EBITDA positive in 2025 given several factors, such as: steady GTV quarterly growth, the benign competition with monetization schemes being regularly adjusted upwards, and cost minimization.

Firstly, Tokopedia’s new fees scheme for its Official Stores could help GOTO to achieve steady GTV quarterly growth by making Tokopedia’s take rate to climb to 4%+ in 2Q23.

Secondly, Gojek consistently shows the launch of its premium and value-added products. 

“Gojek is also driving differentiation aiming to penetrate households in Singapore with Gocar Kids and GoCar XL Kids. In Jakarta too, the Gocar service has expanded to more spacious and luxury vehicles addressing new market segments,” Niko further explained.

Furthermore, Gojek also just raised commission fees charged to drivers in Singapore from 10% previously to 15%. 

Thirdly, GoPay remained a key adoption catalyst for other products of GoTo Financial. 

“GOTO Financial remained the key driver for the ecosystem cohesion and growth through the adoption of GoPay. With GoFood, GoBiz, GoModal and GoKasir services, GoPay can achieve more penetration,” Niko explained. 

With the aforementioned reasons, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas maintains BUY with a lower Target Price to reflect global appetite for tech. GOTO is currently trading at 2.6-3.0x EV / gross revenues 2023-24 and 3.6 - 4.2x P/Gross revenues 2023-24, justifiably with a premium over GRAB and SEA Limited. 

“Our new valuation considers the low internet economy penetration in Indonesia as well as GOTO’s unique ecosystem advantages. Those assumptions also imply that cash balances may just about prove to be enough,” Niko wrote. 

BRI Danareksa Sekuritas’ report is the latest analysis covering GOTO after Samuel Sekuritas revised its recommendation from hold to buy last week.

At the moment, technology stocks are starting to reverse direction in line with the expectation of improving US economic data and the direction of the policies of the US central bank, The Fed

“Ultimately, if the Fed gets inflation under control, tech [stock] has a chance to be the market leader, but the Fed is still in play for at least another six to eight months,” said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, quoted by Investing.

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Editor: Indah Sulistyorini