The New York Times - JAKARTA. PT Ciputra Development Tbk's (CTRA) financial performance is predicted to grow steadily, driven by strong marketing sales results.

Baruna Arkasatyo, an analyst at CGS International Securities Indonesia, stated that the company has set a target for net revenue and gross profit growth for 2024 at 8% year-on-year (YoY). The growth of EPS is targeted at 5% YoY with a stable gross profit margin in the range of 49%-50%.

As for capital expenditure (capex), it is set at IDR 1 trillion - IDR 2 trillion. This fund is expected to be allocated for landbank acquisitions.

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However, his view is more bullish than CTRA's management. As a result, CGS International has lowered its 2024 net revenue and NPAT projections by 10% to account for larger-than-expected inventory sales and guidance in 2022-2023.

"We also cut the gross profit margin for 2024-2026 by 80bps-100bps and the operating profit margin by 10bps-40bps," he wrote in his research on Wednesday (3/4).

Therefore, Baruna projects that CTRA will record a net revenue in 2024 of IDR 10.04 trillion. Meanwhile, in 2025 and 2026, it will be IDR 11.1 trillion and IDR 11.5 trillion, growing 10% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively.

The net profit in 2024 is estimated at IDR 1.96 trillion. Then in 2025 and 2026, it will be IDR 2.2 trillion and IDR 2.4 trillion, growing 12% YoY and 8% YoY, respectively.

A 10% YoY revenue surge in 2025 will be driven by a record high marketing sales in 2023 of IDR 10.2 trillion. About 61% will be handed over in 2025.

"Therefore, we estimate CTRA's ROE in 2024/2025/2026 to be 9.4%/9.8%/9.8%," he explained.

Thus, Baruna has lowered CTRA's target price to IDR 1,380 from previously IDR 1,515. The recommendation given is to add, due to the stable EPS growth prospects and continuously developing joint venture projects.

On the other hand, CGS International believes that CTRA's marketing sales achievement in the first quarter of 2024 will be weaker. The reason is the impact of the General Election and high sales in the first quarter of 2023 originating from the launch of Citra Garden Serpong.

In the first quarter of 2023, CTRA recorded marketing sales of IDR 3.4 trillion.

Editor: Syamsul Azhar