KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Economists predict a decrease in inflation for April 2024, both on a monthly and yearly basis.

Andry Asmoro, Chief Economist at Bank Mandiri, forecasts that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation for April 2024 will be 3.00% year on year (YoY). This figure is expected to decline from the inflation rate of 3.05% YoY in March 2024.

On a monthly basis, inflation is predicted to be 0.25% month on month (MoM), lower than the previous month's figure of 0.52% MoM.

The projected decrease is attributed to a decline in inflation sourced from food commodities. Asmoro notes that the latest data shows a deflation of 2.0% MoM in rice prices in April 2024, reversing the previous inflation figure of 2.1% MoM.

“This decrease is largely influenced by the improved supply of rice during the harvest season, weakened demand after the end of the Eid al-Fitr holiday, and the realization of rice imports by the government,” Asmoro told Kontan on Wednesday (1/5).

Meanwhile, other commodities such as onions and sugar are still showing price increases.

He also predicts a slight increase in core inflation from 1.77% YoY on March 24 to 1.78% YoY on April 24.

Similarly, David Sumual, Chief Economist at Bank Central Asia (BCA), agrees that inflation in April is expected to decrease from the previous month.

He predicts that annual inflation in April 2024 will reach 2.99% YoY, and monthly inflation will reach 0.27% MoM.

According to David, this slowdown in inflation is due to the beginning of a decline in the prices of basic commodities, especially rice, red chili, chicken meat, and chicken eggs, although the price acceleration of onions is still quite high.

“In essence, prices, especially food, have normalized after the Eid al-Fitr holiday,” said David.

On the other hand, David predicts that core inflation is likely to continue the previous trend of increasing, at 1.81% YoY, and on a monthly basis at 0.29% MoM. 

Editor: Syamsul Azhar