KONTAN.CO.ID – JAKARTA. E-commerce transactions throughout 2023 are expected to increase by 5% from Bank Indonesia's (BI) estimate of IDR 474 trillion.

Nailul Huda, Director of the Digital Economy at the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), predicts that the value of e-commerce transactions this year will increase by 5% if TikTok Shop is counted as e-commerce.

Because, Huda said, before TikTok Shop was closed at the beginning of 2023, the platform was not yet registered as e-commerce. So the calculation of its online shopping transactions was not accumulated into the calculation of e-commerce transactions.

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“If TikTok transactions are now counted as e-commerce, I think e-commerce transactions will still grow positively because online shopping remains a choice for the public. Although its growth will not be as high as during the Covid-19 period in 2020-2021,” Huda told Kontan.co.id, Wednesday (27/12).

Huda is also optimistic that the growth of e-commerce transactions will be above BI's estimate, because the trend of shopping on e-commerce is still maintained, especially the trend of shopping on social media.

For information, BI previously cut the estimated total value of e-commerce transactions throughout 2023. In the BI 2023 Annual Meeting report, the institution estimated the total value of e-commerce transactions in 2023 at IDR 474 trillion.

This value is smaller compared to BI's estimate at the beginning of 2023. In January 2023, BI once expressed its optimism that the total value of e-commerce transactions in 2023 would be IDR 533 trillion or grow 12% YoY.

Therefore, referring to the latest BI estimate, there is a possibility of a decrease in the total value of e-commerce transactions by about 0.6% throughout 2023, compared to last year.

However, BI is optimistic that e-commerce transactions will show increasingly sweet developments in the future.

Editor: Syamsul Azhar