JAKARTA. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was shaken by the sentiment of uncertainty ahead of the end of the year. Once hit 5,472.32 on 10 April 2016, the index then continued to decline. From the highest point until Wednesday (23/11), the JCI has dropped by 4.76%.

Analyst at OCBC Securities Budi Wibowo said that JCI will continue to be corrected until the early next year. “The net sell will continue, while The Fed’s interest rate is likely to increase at the end of the year,” Budi said.

Budi predicted that the JCI will be corrected to 4,8004-4,900 at the beginning of the year. JCI itself will be closed at the level of 5,000. Understandably, he is pessimistic that the tax amnesty program will meet the target. At the second period of tax amnesty, tax authority just collected Rp 142 trillion of the target of Rp 1,000 by the end of the year.

The stock exchange will be corrected due to the foreign investors net sells during 8-23 November, which amounted to Rp 7.49 trillion. However, the single investor identification (SID) by October even increased to 525.850, compared with 434.107 in the last year.

Therefore, Budi is optimistic that JCI will be strengthening in the long term, thanks to the improvement in Indonesia’s economic fundamentals. The stakeholders of stock exchange have similar opinion, while management of Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are optimistic that the the stock market will be more attractive in the next year.

President Director of IDX Tito Sulistyo said that the IDX is likely to receive Rp 212 trillion funds in the next year. The funds consist of Rp 55 trillion, Rp 85, Rp 45 trillion, and Rp 18 trillion derived from tax amnesty revenues, insurance, pension funds, and multi funds, respectively.

“The number has not included the revenues from domestic and international investors. Therefore, theoretically, the market caps may increase to Rp 1,000 trillion in 2017,” said Tito at the sidelines of the exposure of Indonesia Economic Outlook 2017 at IDX Building, Wednesday (23/11). That is reasonable, since the JCI is one of the stock markets in the world with the highest value and transaction growth. The JCI grew by 13.48% on year to date basis, or is still lower than the Thailand stock market, which grew by 15.93%.

Furthermore, according to the data of IDX, the issuers have booked an increase in income by 3.21% to Rp 2,054 trillion during the nine months of 206 compared with Rp 1,990 trillion in the same period in 2015. Meanwhile, the comprehensive profits of the issuers have increased by 76% from Rp 167 trillion to Rp 295 trillion.

Therefore, the investment in stocks is still beneficial in 2017

(Muhammad Farid/Translator)

Editor: Barratut Taqiyyah Rafie