KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. The weakening prices of PT Mayora Indah Tbk's (MYOR) main commodities, wheat and sugar, are predicted not to significantly increase the price of raw materials.

Research Analyst Henan Putihrai Securities Janice Kohar said that even though there is an oversupply, she believes the price weakening will still be limited due to geopolitical sentiment.

"Even though there is an oversupply, we see that the price weakening will be limited due to geopolitical sentiment in the Middle East and the Red Sea attacks, which have the potential to drive up the price of raw materials such as wheat," Janice told Kontan.co.id, Monday (5/2).

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In addition, social assistance that is currently being heavily poured by the government can provide a positive catalyst, as it can support people's purchasing power.

"The government announced a social assistance program in the first quarter of 2024, including the Family Hope Program, Basic Food Card, Village Fund BLT, Pre-employment Card, Smart Indonesia Program and Smart Indonesia Card (KIP) with a total budget of IDR 81.2 trillion or an increase of 12% annually," Janice continued.

Low inflation in December 2023 also provided support for purchasing power. This is evident from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation of 0.41% monthly and 2023 inflation of 2.61% annually.

In a research on January 31, 2024, Ciptadana Securities Asia Analyst Putu Chantika Putri predicted that MYOR's sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 will result in positive growth.

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As of September 30, 2023, Mayora Indah recorded a net profit of IDR 2.02 trillion. This figure is up 87% from the same period last year worth IDR 1.08 trillion. Meanwhile, Putu predicts MYOR's net profit for the full year 2023 will reach IDR 2.7 trillion to IDR 2.9 trillion.

"Management also shows an optimistic attitude towards its performance in the full year 2024 by targeting a revenue growth of 10% year on year (YoY)," said Putu, Wednesday (31/1).

Putu indicates that Mayora Indah's main commodities, such as wheat and sugar, are showing a downward trend due to oversupply. However, she also noted the potential for a rise in wheat prices caused by geopolitics in the Middle East and the Red Sea.

"Then there is also an increase in coffee and cocoa prices caused by concerns about El-Nino weather that can weaken global production," she said.

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Even though the prices of selective commodities have increased year to date (YTD), Putu still predicts a slight increase in the gross margin to 26.9% for the full year 2024, because the higher price situation seems to be only temporary.

Meanwhile, the latest new products launched by MYOR such as Dark Wonder and Roma Lavita are one of the positive attractions, even though the availability of their products is still limited.

As a result, Putu still recommends a buy on MYOR shares with a target price of IDR 3,300 per share, she believes MYOR's prospects will improve in the full year 2024.

Editor: Hasbi Maulana