KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. The IDX Composite Stock Index (IHSG) experienced significant fluctuations during the initial quarter of 2024, reflecting a volatile trend. While achieving a record high of 7,454.44, the index later witnessed a decline towards the end of March, slipping below the 7,300 mark.

Closing the trading session for the first quarter on Thursday (28/3), the IHSG weakened by 0.29%, settling at 7,288.81. Despite this setback, it still showcased a modest increase of 0.22% since the commencement of the year (year-to-date).

The stock market's trajectory was marked by various sentiments throughout the first three months of 2024. Domestically, attention was drawn towards the General Election (Pemilu) and the Presidential Election (Pilpres). Meanwhile, on the global front, geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in commodity prices played pivotal roles in shaping market sentiment.

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Macroeconomic indicators, inflation rates, and shifts in benchmark interest rates garnered significant attention from market participants. Moreover, the release of financial reports and anticipation surrounding dividend payouts influenced investor sentiment.

Foreign investors notably engaged in substantial net buying, amounting to Rp 26.27 trillion. However, towards the end of March, this trend reversed as foreign investors transitioned into net sellers, with transactions totaling Rp 1.97 trillion.

Ratih Mustikoningsih, a financial expert at Ajaib Sekuritas, highlighted several factors contributing to the IHSG's volatile movement at the close of the first quarter. These factors encompassed foreign investor activities, currency exchange rate fluctuations, portfolio rebalancing, diminishing momentum in dividends from major banks, and profit-taking maneuvers ahead of an impending stock market holiday.

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As the quarter concluded, investment managers embarked on portfolio rebalancing activities while investors capitalized on profits following the culmination of major bank dividends. Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2024, market participants are attuned to the abbreviated trading schedule anticipated for April.

"Market players are opting to secure sufficient cash reserves in light of the prolonged stock market holiday in April. Additionally, the holiday serves as a catalyst prompting foreign investors to diversify their portfolios into other markets," Ratih elucidated to Kontan.co.id on Sunday (31/3).

William Hartanto, a capital market observer and founder of WH-Project, expressed confidence in the IHSG's performance thus far, attributing the ongoing correction to the index's annual cycle, where a plateau in strength typically occurs in March-April.

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Founder of Stocknow.id, Hendra Wardana, emphasized the importance of monitoring the IHSG's resilience amid impending economic challenges in the second quarter of 2024. Hendra outlined several factors poised to influence the index's trajectory, notably the direction of monetary policy aimed at mitigating projected inflationary pressures.

Internationally, economic data releases from leading nations such as the United States and China are anticipated to serve as pivotal benchmarks for assessing global and regional economic health.

Ratih underscored the significance of forthcoming events such as the anticipated interest rate cut by The Fed in June 2024. Additionally, domestic factors, including financial report disclosures and dividend distributions, are poised to shape the IHSG's performance in the second quarter.

Looking ahead, Ratih envisioned a potential uptrend for the IHSG in an optimistic scenario for the second quarter of 2024, with projected movement ranging between the 7,200 level and resistance at 7,500.

In the realm of investment strategy, market analysts offered insights and stock recommendations tailored to prevailing market conditions. Hendra suggested adopting a defensive stance, focusing on sectors such as banking and consumer goods, particularly during the upcoming Ramadan-Eid period.

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William advocated for a discerning approach to stock selection, advising investors to consider fundamentally sound stocks devoid of special notations. He also emphasized the potential for capitalizing on market downturns.

Meanwhile, Ratih provided technical insights, identifying four stocks poised for observation based on their technical indicators.

1. PT Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR)

• Recommendation to buy at a price area of Rp 2,540.
• Target price at resistance level of Rp 2,720
• Consider support at the level of Rp 2,450.

2. PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)

• Recommendation to buy at a price area of Rp 1,430
• Target price at resistance level of Rp 1,550
• Consider support at the level of Rp 1,370.

3. PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk (BRIS)

• Recommendation to buy at a price area of Rp 2,710
• Target price at resistance level of Rp 2,950
• Consider support at the level of Rp 2,550.

4. PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM)

• Recommendation to buy on weakness at a price area of Rp 3,400
• Target price at resistance level of Rp 3,650
• Consider support at the level of Rp 3,280.

Editor: Hasbi Maulana