KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Indonesia's monthly trade surplus is expected to plummet 80% to $190 million in January after the world's top coal exporter clamped down on shipments last month, and as imports gained momentum, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Authorities on Jan. 1 announced an unexpected suspension of all coal exports due to critically low inventory of the fuel at domestic power plants. Shipments were allowed to resume gradually from Jan. 10, but the ban remains in place for miners who do not comply with domestic sales requirements.

The resource-rich country has recorded a trade surplus every month since May, 2020, benefitting from an upward trend in commodity prices as countries lift COVID-19 restrictions. Thermal coal is Indonesia's top export.

Fifteen economists surveyed in the poll gave a wide range of forecasts for the January trade balance: from a $1.14 billion deficit to a $1.3 billion surplus.

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The median was a $190 million surplus, Indonesia's lowest in 21 months. It was also a fraction of December's surplus of $1 billion and the average monthly trade surplus of $3.9 billion over the past six months.

The poll predicted January export growth slowing to 33.86% on a yearly basis, from 35.30% a month earlier. Meanwhile, imports were seen posting a 51.38% rise, compared with December's 47.93% yearly increase.

Bank Mandiri, whose own expectation was roughly in line with the poll's median, wrote in a note the ban was estimated to have reduced export gains by around $1 billion.

Indonesia's surplus in merchandise trade is expected to shrink this year, with domestic demand rising as Southeast Asia'a largest economy recovers from the pandemic, and with commodity prices seen normalising towards the end of the year, Bank Mandiri added.

Editor: Yudho Winarto