JAKARTA. The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) predicts that inflation in the country will stand at around 5 to 6 percent in 2015, higher than the government’s expected 4.4 percent.

“The impact of the fuel-price increases will be seen in the first quarter of next year because industrial goods will undergo price adjustments,” Indef director Enny Sri Hartati said.

She said that the predicted high inflation was also triggered by increases in base electricity prices (TDL) and floods that might affect the production and distribution of commodities across the archipelago.

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In addition, she said that the rupiah interbank trade rate would stand between Rp 11,850 per US dollar and Rp 12,250 per dollar since there was a possibility that the US Federal Reserve would raise its benchmark interest rate in early 2015.

Moreover, Indef predicted that the poverty rate in 2015 would remain high at around 11.5 percent.

“We are pessimistic about the poverty and unemployment rates next year. Even though the government has launched three welfare cards, they are not going to help increase people’s purchasing power,” she continued.

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo launched the Prosperous Family Card (KKS), Indonesia Health Card (KIS) and the Indonesia Smart Card (KIP) on Nov.3 in Jakarta.